Unemployment rate hits six year high

Published: 9:32AM Thursday May 07, 2009 Source: ONE News

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Unemployment has reached a six-year high of 5% for the March 2009 quarter, according to Statistics New Zealand.

This is slightly lower than the predicted jump in unemployment to 5.3% from 4.7% recorded in the December quarter when it set a five-year high.

However, it means that people like Jackie Shaw, a recent honours graduate from a degree in theatre, cannot even find a job in a supermarket check-out.

"All I want is a source of income, really. Like, I would do anything to get a job," Shaw told ONE News.

ASB economist Jane Turner says overall the result is "relatively resilient" considering the economic backdrop.

"With the economy in recession since the start of 2008, and the credit crunch presenting additional challenges since late 2008, firms are doing their best to hold onto staff levels," she says.

Both the labour force participation rate (the proportion of those either employed or unemployed) and the number of people employed - which are included in the unemployment rate - fell.

Over 30,000 people who had jobs this time last year are now out of work, taking the total number of unemployed to over 100,000.

This was driven mainly by an increase in unemployed men, up 6,000 to 63,000.

The number of unemployed women rose by 1,000 to 52,000 over the quarter.

The labour force participation rate fell by 0.7% to 68.4% during the March quarter across both sexes. 62.2% of women are now employed (down 0.7%) and 75% of men are employed (down 0.6%).

"It is normal for the participation rate to decline when employment levels fall, particularly coming from a position of a very stretched labour market. Those exiting the labour market may choose not to look for new work, either for personal reasons or to continue studies," says Turner.

Despite the decline, the participation rate for women is still the third highest recorded in the survey's history, and on an annualised basis, both female and male participation rates rose slightly.

Among the worst hit by the economic downturn are Pacific Islanders, with the rate jumping from 8.7% in the March 2008 quarter to 13.1% in the current quarter.

The unemployment rate for Maori increased 1.7% to 11.9% and the European rate climbed 0.8% to 3.8%.

There were more people of working age in the March quarter, with an increase of 11,500 people partly due to migration gains.

More than 4,000 people applied for the unemployment benefit in April, with numbers expecting to rise.

Predictions

Many economists had predicted a 5.3% unemployment rate for the March quarter.

During the last recession in 1997-1998, unemployment reached around 8%, and this is where most are expecting the rate to peak in the current recession.

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research in March predicted that more than 6% of New Zealand's work force would be out of work by March next year, a rate which may hold until 2012.

Unemployment data tends to lag behind other economic indicators, so while markets may start to rebound and economic growth pick up, unemployment will keep rising.

"The trend for the rest of 2009 is for further substantial job losses and continued increase in the unemployment rate," says Turner.

Earlier this week, Statistics New Zealand's employment survey showed that the number of full-time employees, filled jobs, and paid hours all declined over the last year.

Another employment indicator, the labour cost index, showed salaries and wages are continuing to rise but at a slower pace than in the December 2008 quarter.

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