NZ tipped to be developed world's 'top performer'

Published: 11:29AM Sunday February 12, 2012 Source: ONE News

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New Zealand will be the top performer in the developed world in 2050, according to a new HSBC Report.

New Zealand will top the league table of developed countries with predictions of GDP growth of 2.9% growth in 2050, according to the report called The World in 2050.

This result for New Zealand outstrips predictions for GDP growth of other developed countries including Australia at 2.6%, Canada 2.5%, Luxembourg 2.5% and Switzerland 2.3%.

New Zealand is also expected to have an average growth rate of 3.1% over the next four decades, making it the only developed country to be labelled a "growth" country - those with anticipated annual growth of between 3-5% between now and 2050.

The remainder of the developed world is instead given a "stable" outlook in the report.

HSBC New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Bloxham says New Zealand's population growth, investment in education, tools and technology will help propel the country to stronger growth.

"In comparison, many of the other developed world countries are instead faced with increasing debt problems, a falling taxpayer base and weak demographics - all of which will limit their growth," Bloxham said.

However, the report isn't all rosy for New Zealand. When it comes to the size of the economy, by 2050 New Zealand will fall 10 places from its current ranking of 50th, to 60th place.

The report predicts 2050 will also bring about a marked shift from West to East as the emerging markets continue to outperform the developed world.

China will overtake the US as the largest economy, the report says.

And countries such as the Philippines will rocket 27 places into 16th overall, Peru up 20 places to 26th, Ukraine up 19 places to 40th and Malaysia up 17 places to 21st. NIneteen of the top 30 countries in 2050 are currently considered "emerging".

"Increasingly attention will shift to the new emergers as the world economy undergoes a seismic shift," said Karen Ward, author of the report and Senior Global Economist for HSBC.

Over the next four decades countries as varied as Nigeria, Peru, the Philippines, Malaysia, Ukraine and Chile will be powering global growth, she said.

Despite New Zealand falling even further down the economic league table, it's not all bad news.

The report finds the country's top five trading partners all fall within the top 20 countries in 2050 - including Australia at 18th, China 1st, USA 2nd, Japan 4th and South Korea 13th - highlighting the opportunities that trading with these countries could provide.

"With the growth of the middle classes in emerging markets set to explode, at the same time the demand for commodities will also rocket suggesting that New Zealand is well placed to take advantage of the growth in the world's fastest growing markets of Asia and Latin America," Bloxham said.

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