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Source: Reuters -
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Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd moved closer to securing his carbon trade laws on Monday after his government agreed to exclude farmers from the scheme, bowing to a key opposition demand.
Climate Change Minister Penny Wong is negotiating with the opposition over amendments to the scheme, designed to end a deadlock in parliament's upper house Senate.
The government wants the package of 11 bills to be passed by the Senate by November 26, when it adjourns for the year, and ahead of global climate talks in Copenhagen in December.
Here are possible outcomes for the bills, which passed the first stage in the lower House of Representatives on Monday. The laws were defeated once already in the Senate in August.
Will the laws pass this year?
- The chances of the laws passing this year have improved after
the government accepted an opposition demand to exclude agriculture
from the scheme.
- The government says it is negotiating amendments in good faith,
meaning there is still a chance of a deal. But the government wants
to make sure any changes do not hurt the budget.
- Updated budget figures on Nov. 2 show the scheme will run at a
deficit in its initial years, leaving little room for extra
industry compensation demanded by the opposition.
- If a deal is done with the opposition, up to 10 opposition
lawmakers could defy opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull and vote
against the scheme.
- The government, which does not have a majority in the Senate,
needs seven votes from other lawmakers to pass the bills. If a deal
is brokered, the government should then secure the numbers, even if
the opposition splits.
- A "yes" vote would give industry a boost, putting a price on
every tonne of carbon emitted and giving certainty on investment
plans. It would also be good for the Copenhagen climate meeting
because it would showed a major energy user and exporter taking
steps to tackle its emissions.
What would a deal look like?
- The government has offered to permanently exempt agriculture from
the scheme. That has been welcomed by national farmer groups and
puts pressure on the rural-based opposition MPs to change their
stance and support the laws.
- With farmers spared from carbon trading, the deal breaker could
now be opposition demands for more compensation for coal miners.
The government may have to agree to exclude fugitive emissions, or
the gas released naturally when coal is mined.
- A deal to postpone the Senate vote until February 2010 and after
the Copenhagen summit would also be a major win for the opposition,
but may improve the chances of the laws passing.
- Some world leaders have suggested Copenhagen will now seek a
strong political agreement to fight climate change and leave the
legally binding details, such as emissions targets, climate finance
and how to measure and report cuts, till later. That may make it
easier for Rudd to allow a delay to his legislation, although he is
still keen for a vote by the end of November.
What happens next?
- The next regular round of opinion polls, due in coming days,
could be the key.
- If Rudd's problems with asylum seeker policies continues to erode
his poll support, the opposition could strengthen its stance and
make it harder to achieve a political deal.
- Both sides of the political divide in Australia will also be
carefully watching progress of the US climate bill which, like
Australia's laws, aims to limit carbon emissions through trading
CO2 permits and putting a cap on carbon pollution.
- While a US Senate panel has approved the Democratic bill, it is
looking increasingly unlikely it will pass a full Senate vote
before Copenhagen because it lacks majority support.
- Support for Obama's administration might also be eroding after
resounding defeats for Democratic Party gubernatorial candidates in
November 3 polls.
Will there be an early election?
- Rudd would have the option of calling a snap election any
time, but possibly in early 2010, if the laws are postponed or
defeated a second time in the Senate.
- But Rudd has regularly played down the chances of an early
election and said he wants to serve his full term, with elections
around the end of 2010.
