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Nadine Chalmers-Ross: Keep calm and carry on

Nadine Chalmers-Ross opinion

Published: 1:38PM Friday June 15, 2012 Source: ONE News

If you've got a mortgage, no doubt all you took in from yesterday's three-monthly update from the Reserve Bank Governor was that interest rates will be lower for longer.

Fair enough.

But the reason things are looking up for the household budget isn't based on good news.

It might be hard to care about that when it's making it easier to make ends meet. But here's why you should.

Rates will be lower for longer because the economy will be weak for longer and a weak economy doesn't create jobs. A weak economy doesn't increase incomes. A weak economy doesn't raise living standards.

The assessment from Dr Alan Bollard yesterday about the impact of the financial and following debt crisis on New Zealand was stark.

"We've been scarred by that crisis and by lower investment through it. It will take some time to build up the productive capacity of New Zealand and to get potential growth back onto the pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) track."

So, not only has it hurt our growth, it's reduced our future growth prospects. If businesses are too nervous to invest, that limits their ability to become more productive.

The good news is, while not unscathed, we're doing better than many other countries.

The bad news is, there's still plenty of potential to sustain further injury.

In fact, Dr Bollard was warning of a long road back to prosperity, regardless of whether Greeks vote to keep the Euro or ditch it in this weekend's second attempt at forming a Government.

Fond of imparting the odd proverb during these press conferences, yesterday Dr Bollard almost went biblical - with an economic bent of course - citing studies by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.

"They take a sort of old testiment, biblical approach ... there's seven years of excess and then seven years of want as we get things back in order"

Cheery, isn't it?

His advice to businesses and the general public to get through all the uncertainty and warnings of financial meltdown isn't exactly sanguine either.

In fact it's the stuff of teatowel and teacup slogans - keep calm, and carry on.

So if you're one of those people who simply focussed on the good bits out of what Dr Bollard had to say yesterday like low interest rates - as you were.

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