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GDP stats are almost ridiculously retrospective. It's now near the end of September and we're almost through the third quarter - yet we're just getting the numbers for the second quarter.
They come so far after the fact I sometimes can't work out why we bother raking over such old ground.
And for news outlets you can understand the quandary. You don't get much of a headline out of: "it's confirmed that the economy grew/entered/exited recession THREE MONTHS AGO".
But this quarter's figure did cause me to sit up a little straighter. It was only a few weeks ago I commented on our "grumpy, scratchy" recovery , and that some were fearing it was even soggier than most had predicted. Now it appears, we have proof.
0.2%. Growth, but growth so infinitesimal it could probably be within the margin of error.
I've lamented before how often forecasts miss the mark, and once again most did. The consensus was around 0.8%, the lowest anyone was picking was about 0.5%.
But a couple of forecasters, who have been derided for being the most bearish of the bunch, have been heralding a figure as dismal as this for some time.
Several months ago, they started warning that the economy had stalled - and after yesterday's figure there was a chorus of others agreeing.
Months ago they were also claiming interest rates needed to be held for the rest of the year, especially when data showed the unemployment rate leapt in the second quarter.
And if the rest weren't in agreement after last week's Monetary Policy Statement, they seem to be now.
On the money
Economics is not only an inexact science, it's also a dismal one.
Because in instances like these, being on the money is nothing to cheer about. The bears don't want to be bears. No one wants to see the sluggish low-to-no-growth they predicted become reality, me included.
But this weak number has me wondering. All things being equal, if the underlying economy continues ticking along at this uninspiring pace, we just might get another low number next quarter.
But all things are not equal - because in Canterbury many things are no longer level.
Predictions vary on what the Canterbury quake will do to growth. But in the short term, for one quarter at least, it could knock GDP by about 0.3%.
I certainly don't profess to be any kind of economic forecaster, but simple maths tells me that we could well see a negative number in the September quarter.
That's when we start talking about oxymoronic "negative growth" or the economy shrinking.
No-one really wants to see it. But then again, if it does all grind to a halt, we won't actually know about it until ooooooh, Christmas.
And by then, hopefully we'll all be singing Joy to the World instead.
