Markets sit up and listen to Bollard

Corin Dann opinion

Published: 1:37PM Friday November 13, 2009 Source: ONE News

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It's common place for Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard to resort to lecturing or "jawboning" financial markets when they don't do what he wants them to.

In recent years this has typically meant expressing concern over the strength of the Kiwi dollar and the use of loaded terminology such as the "dollar is at unjustifiable or unsustainable levels".

Markets know that these words are effectively code for the Bank saying the test for intervention has been it has a green light to act in the currency market, if it wants to.

However in recent months the Reserve Bank, whilst still issuing warnings on the dollar, has pretty much given up hope of really being able to influence market thinking.

It's basically acknowledged that the Kiwi's strength is a US dollar story. Markets know this and simply don't believe the RBNZ will intervene.

However when it comes to jawboning the interest rate markets it's a different story.

The Reserve Bank has scored a crucial victory.

Prior to the latest Official Cash Rate announcement on October 29, markets had ignored Dr Bollard's assurance that he would not hike the OCR until the second half of next year.

They didn't believe him and had feverishly priced in a 100% chance of a 0.5%, or 50 basis point, hike in the Official Cash Rate by March 2010.

This was based on stronger inflation data, an improving housing market and strengthening retail sales.

But Bollard held the line at his OCR meeting stressing strongly that he would keep short term interest rates at their current level until the second half of next year.

Since then he's also, according to OM Financial sources, reiterated that message in private to market participants.

And it has worked.

Markets have backed off and are taking him seriously.

Market pricing now has just an 85 % chance of a 0.25% interest hike in March 2010. This is a big climb down.

Borrowers can now be pretty safe in the knowledge that short term or floating mortgage rates will stay at their current levels until at least June next year.

But Dr Bollard is not finished with the tough talk and this is where his pledge on low interest rates comes with a hook.

Just this week he also warned again about the dangers of a housing bubble remerging. He also slapped some banks for returning to looser lending.

While Bollard will be happy to see some recovery in housing - built on those lower interest rates and a shortage of housing - he's also making it perfectly clear that he won't allow borrowing for houses to really take off and for a true boom to emerge.

Of course, his only way of stopping a serious boom is to ramp up the OCR very swiftly, when he does finally start hiking late next year.

But as we know, this is a blunt tool, and can push up the currency further hurting exporters.

What Bollard really wants is some help from the government in the form of a property tax, and if recent signals from the government are anything to go by, he might just get that wish.

There is a warning for home owners and borrowers in all this.

Don't expect house prices to keep on charging along as they have been over the last few months.

It is a warning Westpac Economists reiterated in their monthly economic note this week.

They say while the market is recovering rapidly from its post boom low&another dip in housing is possible.

The dip, they say will be sparked by interest rates going back up to more normal levels and also a potential property tax crack down.

I tend to think they will be right.

And, it would be foolish to second guess Bollard or the government when it comes to allowing another property boom.

There is a steely determination in Wellington over this issue, policy makers seem determined to NOT allow a repeat of the last boom and the unsustainable borrowing and spending habits it fostered.

Once again we've been warned...

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