-
Source: NZPA / Ross Setford -
Related
The total lamb "crop" this spring will lift by about 560,000 animals - a boost of 2.1% to 27.81 million, agricultural economists say.
But Meat and Wool Economic Service executive director Rob Davison said an annual livestock survey indicates that farmers affected by drought will hold back a greater proportion of lambs from export, to rebuild flocks.
"Although this year's lamb crop is likely to be ahead of last year's, we expect the number of lambs to be available for export will be down 2%," said Davison.
"Farmers in regions previously affected by drought will need to retain more lambs than last year as replacements to rebuild sheep numbers".
The overall increase in lamb numbers would come mainly from greater numbers being born per 100 ewes, and would more than offset a 3.4% drop in numbers of breeding ewes to 22.7 million.
The ewe flock is now at its lowest level since 1952, when the Korean War pushed up wool prices and spurred farmers to boost the size of their flocks. The numbers of breeding ewes have dropped 2.9% in the North Island and 3.8% in the South Island.
But the weather in spring will be a key factor in the final lamb numbers, Davison said.
The lambing percentage is expected to rise from the seven-year
low of 113.2% the spring of 2008, with the help of a greater number
of lambs from the younger hoggets.
Overall sheep numbers dropped 2.8% in the year to June 30, to 33.14
million, after a fall of 11.4% the previous year.
The latest drop reflects not only last year's continued expansion of dairying, but last summer's drought - particularly in the North Island, where sheep numbers fell 5.9%.
Numbers in the South Island fell only 0.3%.
Hogget numbers were static nationally, but fell 12.2% in the North Island, and rose 15.8% in the South Island, and 17.6% in Marlborough-Canterbury.
"This suggests a start to rebuilding sheep numbers," said Davison, who noted some of the increase will be slaughtered for premium prices fetched by "winter lambs" over the next couple of months.
Marlborough-Canterbury reported the largest drop in breeding ewes, down 6.9%, partly due to a low number of ewe replacement retained in 2008.
In the North Island, drought drove down breeding ewe numbers by 4.2% in Northland-Waikato-Bay of Plenty, and by 4.3% on the East Coast. Three consecutive years of drought in the East Coast regions has caused successive reductions in sheep numbers.
But flock rebuilding in Taranaki-Manawatu has lifted ewe numbers by 1.8%, and in Otago by 1.6%.
The total lamb crop will be up by 750,000 animals in the North Island (to 12.8 million) and will fall by 190,000 in the South Island to 15.01 million.
