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Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard - Source: NZPA / Tim Hales
The debate over interest rates is firing up again with the Reserve Bank due to consider the official cash rate for the first time this year on Thursday.
A change in the rate of 2.5% is extremely unlikely next week and Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard is again likely to reiterate that he won't be hiking the benchmark interest rate until the middle of the year.
It's a pledge that has divided economists.
Many feel he is being unrealistic about the speed of New Zealand's economic recovery and he will have to back track and hike in March in order to head off inflation pressures.
Others feel he's got it about right and can afford to wait for more clear evidence that the economy is rebounding, before hiking, especially with unemployment still rising.
All this matters hugely to those borrowers looking to ride historically cheap short-term mortgage rates as far as they can this year.
The longer Dr Bollard holds, the more money they will save.
So far this year, the balance of the economic data which influences Dr Bollard's thinking, has fallen the right way for those borrowers...although only just.
Home sales in December came in sluggish, while this week's fourth quarter inflation data showed prices slipping on the CPI by 0.2%, with inflation for the year coming in around 2%.
The weaker inflation in particular will remove much of the pressure to start hiking rates early.
And wholesale interest rate markets did acknowledge this with expectations of an early hike cooling off somewhat this week.
The Kiwi dollar also fell as a result.
It's still a fine balance though, as stronger than expected November retails sales figures on Thursday suggest it's not all one-way traffic and consumers are starting to spend again.
And, even the struggling manufacturing sector was showing more signs of recovery this week hitting a two-year high on a performance index.
In the end, of course, interest rates will almost certainly rise this year - barring another economic shock - so no one should be counting on getting a floating interest rate below 6% forever.
In fact, some of the more hawkish economists out there think that the official cash rate could go up as much as 1.5 % by the end of the year. So consider that when you go about borrowing.
For the time being there is still breathing space to enjoy the cheap short-term rates, but stay tuned to the economic data that comes in. It could all change quickly.
If it suddenly looks like the economy is really starting to take off and rebound strongly, as some such as Westpac have predicted, then you may - depending on your personal circumstances - need to reconsider your options and start looking to the security of fixed rates.
It's going to be a fascinating economic story this year. Interest rates along with tax reform are likely to dominate heavily.
It should hopefully be a year of growth and recovery rather than survival like 2009.
Whether it's a sustainable recovery long term, however, remains to be seen.
Buckle in it's going to be another interesting ride.
