The total number of cellphone and other wireless subscribers in New Zealand will jump to 6.2 million by 2013, with Vodafone holding a 52.2 market share, says an industry analyst.
Forecasts by IE Market Research Corp to 2013 today said that Subscriber growth is slowing down in New Zealand's mobile operator space, with an industry average of 5.1% subscriber growth in the first quarter of this year.
The sector's average revenue per user dropped 6.8% and will continue to decline, but the number of airtime minutes used per subscriber stabilised around an industry average of 186 minutes/month.
"We forecast that total subscribers in New Zealand will increase from 4.75 million in 2008 to 6.24 million in 2013," the company said.
"Both Vodafone and Telecom will see their numbers of subscriber accounts increase over the next five years ... Vodafone will have 3.26 million subscribers and Telecom will have 2.98 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013".
Vodafone would continue to lead in terms of market share, though this market share would decline slightly over the next five years, from 52.4% in 2008 to 52.2% in 2013 while Telecom's share would rise from 47.6% in 2008 to 47.8% in 2013.
Both Telecom and Vodafone would see their average revenue per use levels drop, with Vodafone's monthly figure falling from $43.35 in 2008 to $35.64 in 2013, and Telecom's from $33.57 to $25.57 over the same period.
While Vodafone's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin will remain stable at about 41%, Telecom's margin will drop from 40.3% to 39.2% over the five years, the forecaster said.
