Over the last couple of months stock markets around the world have rallied strongly on the back of so-called 'green shoots' of economy recovery.
These green shoots are signs of stabilisation in the US housing market, better than expected corporate returns, and improving profitability at some big US banks.
Ever since US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke used the phrase in March, others have been quick to recycle it as positive economic data emerges.
But are we really seeing signs of recovery or are the markets getting ahead of themselves?
Fund manager Mark Brighouse from Brook Asset Management says there are indeed signs of recovery in the US banking sector, and locally, banks in New Zealand have started to see mortgage repossessions begin to slow down.
"In many cases it's case of things getting worse, but less fast...A slowdown in the pace of weakness is a precursor to an improving trend," he says.
However, while economies have "looked into the abyss and backed away from that" he warns that the green shoots are very small and tough times are still ahead.
Brighouse says the big concern for recovery is the flow-on impact of rising unemployment.
Statistics New Zealand figures last week showed unemployment reached a six-year high of 5% for the March 2009 quarter.
In March, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research predicted that more than 6% of New Zealand's work force will be out of work by March next year.
Brighouse says for households it is a case of battening down the hatches.
"All they can do is cut back their spending, try to maintain their incomes, and rebuild their balance sheets.
"That could take a long time...and that's going to have a dampening effect on spending and housing investment for the next few years," he says.
While there have been different scenarios on the shape of recovery - some expecting a sharply rebounding V-shape, and others a flat L - Brighouse says the recovery is more W shaped in that it will be up and down all the time.
"You see pent-up demand returning, you see signs of much stronger growth, and then it can easily drop away again," he says.
The Reserve Bank this week urged retail banks to continue lending to encourage growth, and the New Zealand government is expected to focus on improving economic productivity in its upcoming Budget announcement on May 28.
