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Berl has warned the longer-term issues and challenges facing the New Zealand economy remain unchanged.
In its economic forecast released on Wednesday, Berl says the relief that the worst of the recession may have passed "should be tempered".
The organisation says it is "unconvinced that an export-led story is ahead of us".
While dairy, kiwifruit, log and wine exports appear to be back to long-term growth trends, meat, pulp, timber, tourism, apples and manufacturing are set for a period of consolidation.
Berl also forecasts that while consumer spending may begin to grow, job security concerns are likely to temper growth.
Business investment spending is more likely to lag, rather than lead the economic recovery. Berl says the availability and price of funds is an issue, with the average business base lending rate remaining in double digits.
The forecast for GDP growth (production based) for the March 2010 year is an average -0.5%. Thereafter, annual growth averages close to 2% for each of the following March years.
However, employment growth is unlikely to reappear until late-2010. They predict an unemployment rate in the range 6.5-7.5% over the forecast horizon.
The current account balance of payments is improving primarily due to reductions in imports and in the deficit on investment income. However, Berl says such movements are not the foundation for an ongoing sustainable improvement.
