Economists predict negative GDP growth

Published: 7:16AM Thursday March 26, 2009 Source: ONE News

  • Print this article
  • Text size + -

Many forecasters are predicting the fourth quarter GDP figures due out on Friday will fall well below the Reserve Bank governor's predictions.

In his December review of the official cash rate governor Alan Bollard forecast that New Zealand could look forward to three or four quarters of subdued growth in 2009.

However, Jenni McManus of Fairfax Media says most economists are picking GDP of -1.1% - worse than the last three quarters put together.

McManus says economists are predicting the fall will be felt right across the board.

"It's going to be manufacturing, it's going to be construction, it's obviously going to be housing. It's going to be absolutely everything," she says.

Earlier this week, Finance Minister Bill English fired a warning that GDP for the December quarter would be around 2% lower than for the previous December quarter.

If figures show that GDP has again contracted, it will be the first time since 1990 that GDP has trended downward for four consecutive quarters.

This would put New Zealand in line with World Bank predictions on the global economy which is expected to contract by -1% to -2%.

The World Bank put out a grim forecast earlier this month saying the global economy will this year shrink for the first time since World War II.

By the middle of 2009, the Word bank believes industrial output could be as much as 15% lower than 2008, and trade may record the biggest decline in 80 years - its worst performance since the Great Depression.

  • Print this article
  • Text size + -
  • more...

Business News Video

Advertising

How do you want your news?

  • Mobile Devices

    TVNZ is available on mobile phones: Text TVNZ to 8869.

  • News Feeds

    See when TVNZ have added new content. You can get the latest headlines anywhere.

  • Podcasts

    Enjoy TVNZ on the move - a wide range of programmes and highlights are available.