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Next week we will get another official - albeit slightly dated - reading on the state of our economic recovery, with the release of the first quarter gross domestic product figures from Statistics New Zealand.
At the moment forecasters seem to be picking a 0.7% rise in economic growth for the three months to March 2010, which is broadly in line with the 0.8% that was racked in the last quarter of 2009.
But despite those reasonably rosy numbers, there remains some big uncertainties about the shape and strength of New Zealand's recovery - the biggest of which seems to revolve around consumer spending habits and business investment.
Because, while we are seeing strong export returns and falling unemployment, retail spending has not bounced back yet.
Retail sales figures from Statistics New Zealand this week for April were down 0.3%.
Now in some ways this is exactly what policy makers want to see. The so-called great re-balancing of the economy where a recovery is lead by a strong export sector, with a weak domestic sector where savings are increased.
But it's not that simple.
Because despite the rubbish retail figures of late, consumer confidence is actually surging ahead and now at very strong levels.
Westpac's Consumer Confidence Index hit its highest level in three-and-a-half years this week, with a big up tick in the numbers of people saying it was a good time to buy a household item.
In fact the level of the index would suggest - according to Westpac and pre-recession comparisons - that a strong spending rebound should now be on the cards.
So why the disconnect between high consumer confidence and actual spending? And how worried should the Reserve Bank be by such figures?
Well, economists say only time will really tell on this one, as it is just too difficult to predict consumer behaviour.
However at this stage I think it probably remains unlikely that retail spending will bounce back sharply like it may have done in the past following downturns.
Wages have barely moved over the last couple of years and are likely to remain sticky for a bit longer yet.
Unemployment is still elevated, if albeit falling, while the global story of the euro zone debt crisis keeps the threat of another double dip recession high in people's minds.
Kiwis must also be aware of the threats from the Reserve Bank that it will clamp down with steeper official cash rate hikes, if we do get reckless with spending and return to the borrowing habits of the boom.
All this creates a bit of a dilemma though.
Because while it's in the interests of the overall economy to have strong exports, weaker domestic spending and higher saving, it might not be good for many businesses right now who are desperately looking for increased sales.
Remember a huge part of the economy is still driven by consumer spending.
If businesses - as Jenni McManus pointed out on NZI Business this week - don't see stronger sales coming through the tills, they will be reluctant to invest in new staff and machinery - whatever the confidence surveys say.
That, of course, could have downstream impacts on productivity.
Now it's possible that there is simply a lag effect at the moment and sales will strengthen over the course of the year.
Treasury is certainly forecasting the current account deficit to widen again in coming years as Kiwis become more confident and start borrowing more.
So we are at an interesting point in the recovery cycle and it is going to be fascinating to see how Kiwis do end up responding.
