Boy, if you think Kiwis have been overly negative and pessimistic about our economic recovery lately, take a look at what's been going on in the US this week.
Negative sentiment seems to have sunk to a new post-Lehman Brothers low, with many of the nation's most respected economists now talking openly about the very real prospect of a double dip recession.
Sparking this latest bout of teeth gnashing was dismal housing sales numbers for July.
These suggested that without the help of Federal tax credits, the housing market is still in big trouble.
The plummeting sentiment is now being reflected in stock markets too with the Dow Jones closing under the 10,000 mark on Friday, while bond markets continue to surge ahead with people looking to park their cash in safe havens, even if it means getting very little or no return.
It is this environment of doom and gloom that will greet the world's central bankers this weekend (including our own Allan Bollard) when they converge on Jackson Hole in Wyoming for the Federal Reserve's annual central bankers getaway.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will kick off the meeting with a speech on the economy tomorrow (Friday US time).
This will come under huge media scrutiny as many are now looking for signs that Bernanke will turn on the tap again and officially start printing money to prop up the economy.
Pause in interest rates?
The Jackson Hole meeting is very important for our Reserve Bank governor Allan Bollard as it is here where he will get a real handle on just how bad things are in the world economy.
If he comes back looking like a ghost and having been convinced that the world is slowing faster than thought, then we can all but kiss goodbye to another hike in the Official Cash Rate in September.
It already looks doubtful given the string of poor local data lately.
In fact the BNZ economics team has now changed its stance and is predicting there will be a pause by Bollard in both September and October; although it still believes that New Zealand will continue to deliver reasonable if unspectacular growth.
I tend to agree on the growth front.
Yes things have slowed here and unemployment has risen.
But compared to others like the US and Ireland, we really are in an enviable position. This is being reflected too in our government bonds which along with Australia's are proving very popular at the moment.
Remember Fonterra's milk price pay out has actually held up, despite the fall in auction prices, and company results this week from the likes of Nuplex have been pretty solid.
The strong Australian and Asian economies are clearly providing New Zealand and our Central Bank with a buffer that many others countries would love to have.
It's a buffer that will see Bollard go to Jackson Hole as only one of the few central bankers in the Western world who have actually managed to hike interest rates and remove stimulus this last year.
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