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If you are trying to stay positive about our 'slog fest' of an economic recovery then I suggest you stay clear of UK economist.
We had Tyndall Investment's UK Economist Andrew Hunt on the programme this week and the story he had to tell for New Zealand wasn't encouraging.
As far as Hunt is concerned developed nations like the US, UK and Japan are nowhere near ready or able to remove their massive fiscal and monetary support measures put in place at the height of the financial crisis.
In fact according to Hunt many will have to step up their money printing or so called quantitative easing programmes if they want to avoid going back into recession.
This is apparently because money printing (in other words Central Banks buying up government bonds) is the only way western governments, the UK included, can keep funding their massive budget deficits.
He says to get a sense of the problem you only need to look at how Greece has struggled in the wake of a decision by the European Central Bank to ease back on money printing.
So why does this matter for New Zealand?
Well for a start according to Hunt it could mean a much stronger New Zealand dollar, pain for the export sector and the squashing of a recovery that has started to look a little more balanced of late.
This is because the on-going money printing could further bolster the world financial system and encourage investment banks to go looking for high yields in places like New Zealand again.
Remember that while New Zealand's official interest rates are at record lows of 2.5%, they are still a lot higher than in Japan or the UK or the US where they are virtually zero.
This is nothing new to New Zealand of course.
We were plagued by this problem at the height of the boom. Money flooded into New Zealand (thereby pushing up the Kiwi dollar) to take advantage of our high interest rates.
Money which banks of course were all to happy to lend on to Kiwi borrowers in a seemingly ever rising housing market. It was a vicious cycle.
What Andrew Hunt is saying is that New Zealand faces a return to that cycle, with the currency maybe evening heading back to 80 cents US.
The scary part is that this could all happen regardless of the health, poor or otherwise of our own economy.
It is the last thing the manufacturing/export sector in particular will want to be hearing and it doesn't bode well for New Zealand in any way increasing its investment in the productive sector over the housing sector.
So, why wouldn't we stop or tax this potential inflow of capital like other Asia nations do?
Well, many here would undoubtedly like to, but Hunt, much like our policy makers feels it would be futile. We are simply too small apparently.
The best hope it seems is that there might be tighter control on the local banks.
Stop them recycling so much of the incoming funds into the housing sector (a key source of inflation) by requiring them to hold more capital on their books.
And the Reserve Bank, to its credit, has actually set about doing this.
But its new prudential measures are yet to be really put to the test.
Lending growth is weak at the moment.
What will happen if Hunt's predictions really run true and it gets easier, not harder for the banks to raise money to lend on to home owners?
Initially I was a bit sceptical of Hunt's thesis. Surely we have moved on from the so called 'carry trade' trend.
On the day we had him on the programme the dollar was below 70 US, due to fears the Chinese economy was overheating. Other factors are at play now surely&
But by Friday I could see his point.
The Federal Reserve had on Wednesday pledged again to keep interest rates low for a long time, Japan also loosened its monetary policy. Markets rallied and investors were on cue flooding back to the Kiwi dollar.
