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Source: Reuters
Airlines and their suppliers are reporting tentative signs a
severe industry recession is bottoming out, sending shares
higher.
Airbus, the world's largest producer of passenger jets, says
airline traffic has possibly seen the trough of the recession and
could start to rebound from next year.
"In 2009 we believe total traffic is down 2%. In 2010 we may
experience a 4.6% growth rate," says Laurent Rouaud, senior vice
president of market and product strategy.
In Europe, Air France-KLM said passenger traffic fell 2.9% in
August but its planes were on average 84.8% full, a rise of 1.1
percentage points from the same holiday peak month a year
ago.
Its shares rose 6.6%, helping push the DJ Stoxx pan-European Travel
and Leisure index up 2.4%, with traders also citing catch-up by an
underperforming sector.
Shares in Aer Lingus, British Airways, Ryanair and Lufthansa
rose between 2% and 4% percent.
The Air France figures came as industry data for July showed
airline passenger and freight traffic dropped much less sharply
year-on-year than in the first half of 2009.
ACI Europe says a survey of 106 airports found passenger
traffic at European airports fell 4.3% compared with July 2008,
versus an average 9.6% drop during the preceding six months of this
year.
Freight traffic - a widely watched indicator of economic health -
fell 13.4% compared with July 2008, an improvement on the average
22.4% decrease during the preceding six months.
"That would fit with our picture," says economist Cristoph Weil at
Commerzbank.
"We believe we will see a strong recovery in Q3 and Q4 in the
euro area."
Air France-KLM says its cargo business has confirmed signs of
stabilisation seen in recent months.
Ireland's Aer Lingus says passenger numbers have risen 7.7%
year-on-year in August.
Growth predicted
Economists say the global economy looks to be pulling out of
recession, with the OECD predicting a renewal of growth for the
United States and Euro zone in the third quarter.
But, like the airline industry, the broader economy remains on life
support and G20 finance ministers agreed on September 5 to keep
stimulus measures in place.
ACI Europe's numbers were helped slightly by weak comparative
figures in July 2008, when the economic downturn first started to
bite and passenger data entered negative territory for the first
time in six years.
But weak comparatives account for only about a fifth of the
improvement in freight volumes, ACI archive figures show.
Airbus and rival Boeing Co are headed for their worst annual order
tally in at least 15 years as struggling airlines cancel or defer
almost as many planes as they buy.
The world's airlines are expected to post total 2009 losses of $US9
billion ($NZ12.94 billion) including at least $US6 billion ($NZ8.63
billion)in the first half, says the International Air Transport
Association..
A Boeing executive says any recovery in the economy will not
translate into recovery in demand for aircraft until 2012.
"Next year will be a year of economic recovery, 2011 will be a
year of airline industry recovery and then in 2012, airlines will
probably increase their demand for new airplanes," says Randy
Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial
Airplanes.
Air France-KLM last week announced 1,500 voluntary redundancies,
adding to thousands of airline job cuts worldwide.
Laurent Rouaud says even once airlines fly out of recession,
they will be haunted by big questions on costs, especially
fuel.
