Tax cuts focus of key Cullen Budget

Published: 6:29AM Thursday May 22, 2008 Source: ONE News/Newstalk ZB

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Most interest will focus on possible tax cuts when Finance Minister Michael Cullen delivers his ninth budget on Thursday afternoon.

Cullen will become the first post war Finance Minister to deliver nine Budgets in a row and this will be his most critical effort yet. He has to take account of the global credit crunch and the effect that has had on New Zealand, along with a lower than forecast revenue flow.

Cullen has spent recent weeks dampening down expectations about Budget handouts, but some form of tax relief is expected.

The focus will be on how big any tax cuts are and whether they will be generous enough to stave off an onslaught from National, who earlier this week said they would base their tax cut policy on the one they held at the last election.

Back then, they ranged from $10 a week for lower income earners up to $90 a week for those at the top. An average worker on $50,000 would get about $45 a week.

Cullen has never been a fan of tax cuts across the board, but he knows that not to deliver them in election year means Labour could possibly not be delivering a Budget for some years to come.

PricewaterhouseCoopers tax director Peter Vial says there are many ways Cullen can put more money into the pockets of New Zealanders.

"He could reduce the rates, the rates are currently 39%, 33% and 19.5%. He could raise the thresholds at which those rates apply, he could do something really radical like introduce a social dividend, which is a one off payout to wage and salary earners - looking unlikely, but he could do that."

Vial says the most likely move will be to re-adjust the thresholds at which tax rates kick in. The top rate of 39% currently kicks in at $60,000 and Vial believes Cullen could move that to around $75,000.

The timing of the cuts will also be crucial.

Parliament will go into into urgency in order to implement the cuts sooner rather than later, perhaps as early as July.

Even though Cullen has spent weeks dampening down expectations, it is expected there will be a few significant surprises.

The New Zealand Herald is speculating that funding will be provided for a new University Campus in South Auckland.

While ONE News revealed on Wednesday night that Labour is planning a Budget surprise to boost the incomes for one of the most needy and politically powerful groups in New Zealand, pensioners.

But economists say that with a lower than forecast revenue flow and a global economic downturn, too much in the way of election year sweeteners is unlikely.

Council of Trade Unions economist Peter Conway says we shouldn't expect too many surprises.

He says we can expect a pretty broad-based Budget, typical of the sort of budget we've seen from Labour in the past.

Conway believes the government can also deliver decent tax cuts without hurting interest rates.

Cullen will begin reading his budget to parliament at 2pm. ONE News will have full Budget coverage, including pre and post analysis from 1:30pm.

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