Shearer not taken seriously until Wednesday night (Dec 5)
One thing I've got to make clear is that this post isn't an endorsement of David Shearer per se, rather about something that's been on my mind in the last week. The one thing that has astonished me about the Labour leadership race, considering how long the question has been around, is how David Shearer was never seriously considered by journalists and pundits until, well basically, mid-last week. I guess with the benefit of hindsight and thanks to a show that profiles Backbencher type MPs that don't make it onto prime time shows, I'd been receiving emails about David Shearer ever since the first time he came on back in the Mt Albert by-election show. "There's something about that guy," wrote one. "Wow, you can actually kind of believe what he says," emailed another.
Yet that type of feedback never translated into general media. The Labour leadership has been the talk of newsrooms and pubs and cafes for over a year now, and the common mantra was Cunliffe, Parker with Jones as outsider. Here's an example from August by Tracy Watkins: "Mr Goff has three potential rivals - finance spokesman David Cunliffe, frontbench MP David Parker and list MP Shane Jones, whose star was rising until a furore erupted over using his ministerial credit card to pay to watch porn."
Also back in August, TV3's The Nation talked of Jones not giving up on leadership. Asked about possible leadership contenders David Cunliffe and David Parker, Mr Jones said: "I think that both of them are very ambitious and they've got a lot to offer the party." David Shearer isn't part of the conversation.
As late as early last week, Claire Trevitt from The Herald writes "'Charismatic' Cunliffe people's choice for Labour". Quoting Political commentator Bryce Edwards: "Amongst the public he's the most appealing. He's kind of charismatic - I think he's quite a competent leader." Trevitt writes last week that "The Labour caucus will have to choose between a ticket of Cunliffe and Nania Mahuta, or Parker and Robertson as their new leadership team - and although Mr Parker appears to have the edge, it is a close contest." There is a line at the end - "Mr Jones has ruled himself out of contesting the leadership, and others such as David Shearer and Mr Little are too inexperienced."
And even the iPredict crowd back on Monday picked Parker. Writes the NBR - "Punters on the iPredict marketplace - today crowing about the accuracy of its election predictions - at midday were betting David Parker has 61.5% chance of replacing Phil Goff as leader, up 53% today." The articles continues - "Despite - or perhaps because of - being a close friend of Phil Goff, David Shearer's iPredict contract gives him only a 5.4% probability of becoming leader" going on to say he was a "professional do-gooder" before becoming an MP.
What does the Dear Leader say? "If I had to have a punt I'd say Cunliffe" Key tells Newstalk ZB. There may be another reason Key says that. The word I've heard is that the one person National insiders think could one day match John Key is David Shearer.
But it all changed last Wednesday night at 7.30 when the Close Up results came in. Cunliffe 31%, Parker18% and Shearer 50% plus. The fact that the public saw something and HAS seen something in Shearer was absolutely missed by media at large. In fact, if you did a Lexis-Nexis database search over the past 12 months, I'm betting you would find next to no comment on Shearer as Labour leader contender. It has been a fascinating blind spot.
As I said, this is not to say this post is an endorsement. Cunliffe is hugely capable and, from what I think, has a very strong leadership personality. And to quote Gordon Campbell of Scoop: "So far, he (Shearer) has been an extremely low-key presence in Parliament since winning the Mt Albert by-election in mid 2009. All very well being a quiet achiever but Shearer has been completely inaudible."
For my two cents worth, I think the enormously capable and well liked Annette King should take the reigns for the next few months, just so Labour doesn't rush this leadership thing. And something else might happen, which we've all possibly missed. Just how damn good Annette King can be when given a chance to shine.
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