-
The Webb Ellis Cup - Source: Photosport -
Related
Forget the arguments about peaking too soon, the current All Blacks squad may be too old to win the 2011 World Cup, writes tvnz.co.nz's Chris Matthews.
While of course age is only a number, evidence from the last six World Cups suggests that a blend of youth and experience is imperative to success.
The All Blacks of 1991 went into the World Cup as strong favourites to retain their title, but an aging squad were shown up by the Wallabies in the semi-finals. Andy Earl, Richard Lowe, Steve McDowell and Alan and Gary Whetton were all on the wrong side of 30.
Australia went to South Africa in 1995 as favourites as well but the players who had helped lift the title four years earlier, like Michael Lynagh (32), David Campese (33), Troy Coker (30), Ewen McKenzie (30), Dan Crowley (30) and Rod McCall (32) it was perhaps one World Cup too many.
The 2003 World Cup winning England team were famously dubbed 'Dad's Army', but in actual fact the average age of their squad was only 27. The last World Cup winners, the Springboks of 2007, had an average age of 26.
Looking to the future
Now officially two years out from the World Cup the World Champion Springboks are shaping up as the team to beat. Their groundbreaking season has seen them beat the British and Irish Lions in a three match series and all but secure the Tri Nations title.
But are they peaking too soon? Or rather, is their squad too old?
The Springboks XV that was stunned by the Wallabies on Saturday night have an average age of 26.5 years. In two years time, assuming that XV remains the same, they will be well on the wrong side of 28 and history tells us that is too old for World Cup success.
The current All Blacks XV is even older. The team that was named to play the Springboks in Hamilton on Saturday currently has an average of 27 and in two years time they of course will have an average age of 29.
On the other hand Robbie Deans' new breed of Wallabies, the team that kept the Tri Nations alive for the All Blacks on Saturday night, has an average age of just 24. By the time September 2011 rolls around, the average age of the Australian squad will be 26, the ideal age for World Cup success.
The Cycle
Age is only one factor to World Cup success. Ability, form, injuries and even luck - just ask the 2007 All Blacks - all contribute to teams' fortunes.
But one thing that history teaches us is that everything happens in cycles and countries must seize the moment when their time has come.
The All Blacks of 2011 may shatter this age theory, and I hope they do, but their shot at World Cup glory may have been four-years prior. The average age of the 2007 World Cup squad was 26-years-old.
