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Shane Smeltz celebrates - Source: Reuters -
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Ahead of tonight's crucial Group F decider between the All Whites and Paraguay, tvnz.co.nz's Michael Burgess runs a critical eye over the make-or-break issues facing Ricki Herbert's men.
Can the All Whites handle South American opposition?
The New Zealand side have always struggled against Latin American teams, who tend to have an unstructured approach and are highly technical. And the South Americans are thriving at this World Cup with each of their five teams - Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and of course Paraguay - all on top of their respective groups. This All Whites team is probably the best team in our history but they will struggle against the pace and power of Paraguay.
Just how good are Paraguay?
Very, very good. Their world ranking of 31 is a little misleading, especially with the form they have shown at this tournament so far. They are a very skilful team but also quite physical, unlike most teams from that continent. Paraguay has long been regarded as having the meanest defence in South America but the 2010 vintage has a real cutting edge up front. This team is their golden generation - possibly the best in their history - and pundits at home expect them to reach the quarter finals at least, with a fighter's chance of making the last four.
Do the All Whites have a plan B?
This is a concern. Against Italy plan A worked - the All Whites scored early and defended for their lives. Whereas in the match with Slovakia there was a disturbing lack of a plan B and no obvious change in tactics once the European side took a second half lead. Winston Reid's last minute miracle goal obscured a laboured, ponderous performance (especially in the second half) and no obvious urgency. This cannot be repeated tonight.
What has happened to Michael McGlinchey?
The former Celtic midfielder had a great game away in Bahrain and was one of the true stars of that epic night in Wellington. The 22-year-old brings real pace and spark to the centre midfield and provides a vital link between the midfield and the forwards. He has seemingly fallen out of favour, with Jeremy Christie and Ivan Vicelich favoured alongside Simon Elliot. From this distance it is hard to understand why, and perhaps the forgotten man can steal a few headlines tonight.
What is Herbert's greatest quandry?
The coach has performed miracles in South Africa but tonight will have to be his greatest yet. Do the All Whites take a positive approach and push forward in search of goals and glory - bearing in mind that Paraguay are brilliant on the counterattack? Or does he instruct his squad to sit back behind the ball, soak up pressure and take their chances on the Italy Slovakia result falling their way? It is his greatest gamble.
Do they have gas in the tank?
There must be a concern about how much more the All Whites can give in terms of effort, application and concentration. The matches against Slovakia and Italy were physically, mentally and emotionally draining for the New Zealand side, who have to do some much more running and face that much more pressure than most other teams. Hopefully Ryan Nelsen and company can call on one last huge effort, but the last thirty minutes of the game could be when the levee breaks.
How exactly can the All Whites reach the second round?
Given the close nature of Group F there are more than a couple
of permuatations. An (unlikely) win will definitely send the New
Zealand side through, while a higher scoring draw than Italy and
Slovakia (i.e All Whites 1 Paraguay 1 and Italy 0 Slovakia 0) will
also mean that Herbert's squad are in the round of sixteen. If both
matches end in identical draws then FIFA will draw lots to decide
who stays in the tournament out of New Zealand and Italy.
See full
Group Standings here
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